Transnational Threat Indications and Warning: The Utility of Network Analysis

This paper uses the case of the Japanese cult Aura Shinrikyo to illustrate how network constructions can aid in the development of indications and warning for transnational threats. Following a brief primer on Aum, the paper describes Aum’s organizational and transactional networks, and examines how analysts could have used these representations to generate indications and warnings. The main conclusions are that link analysis can create organizational and transactional network representations that are well suited to develop indications and warning for transnational threats, and that the Aum Shinrikyo case can suggest useful points of departure for link analysis.